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Super Bowl Prop Bets: An Insiders Guide

Super Bowl Prop Bets: An Insiders Guide

The most wonderful time of the year is upon us, a time for sitting around the fire with the family, a time for both giving and receiving, and most importantly a time to pick up a fork or two and chow down on some delicious food. You may think I am talking about Christmas, and of course, you’d be wrong. I am talking about the Super Bowl, the actual best day of the year. A day, not for pretending to enjoy spending time with aunts and uncles, getting your third article of clothing while still pretending to be surprised, but a day for uninterrupted football while losing making astronomical amounts of money on Super Bowl prop bets. So if you want to capitalize on the gift that the universe has given us, read on, and win some money.

I split up the following props by section, and all props and odds are presented by Bovada.

Pregame Bets

This section is pretty self-explanatory, they are all the props that occur before the game begins.

Will the opening coin toss land heads or tails?

Heads (-105)

Tails (-105)

As the saying goes, ‘Tails Never Fails’, and like most sayings, if you listen to it you are an idiot. Tails is the big sucker play here, so if you want to be a moron go with tails like all the other mouth breathing Eli Manning’s of the world and throw away some money, be my guest. But if you want to live like a king go ahead and choose heads.

MY PICK: HEADS (-105)

How long will it take Gladys Knight to sing the National Anthem?

Over 1:47 (-160)

Under 1:47 (+120)

I’m not gonna lie to you, I have no clue who Gladys Knight is. Call me stupid, sorry I was born in this century. But upon further research, Gladys Knight is known as the “Empress of Soul”, making this the single easiest bet of the ‘knight’. I would be genuinely surprised if the Empress clocked in under 2:30. Not a chance she keeps this thing quick, lock it in and smash the over.

MY PICK: OVER (-160)

Will Gladys Knight forget or omit a word from the National Anthem?

YES (+300)

NO (-500)

I must admit that I am a sucker for a good line, I see +300 staring me in the eyes and I have a very difficult time saying no. On the other hand, this bet could be even and I would still hammer YES. As I said above, “The Empress of Soul”, in my eyes, there is nothing more soulful than omitting a word of the National Anthem. Okay, maybe not, but still, soul music equals mispronunciations left and right and I believe that Miss Gladys / Empress will put her soul spin on this Anthem and make it her own.

MY PICK: YES (+300)

Who will be shown first during the National Anthem?

Bill Belichick (-130)

Sean McVay (-110)

This one is a shot in the dark. The narrative I am building in my head tells me it will be Bill Belichick. Going from the grumpy old scowl to the ravishing young man on the other just makes sense.

MY PICK: Bill Belichick (-130)

Will any player take a knee during the National Anthem?

YES (+300)

NO (-500)

On one hand, the NFL has put the wraps on any player kneeling during the game so hard this year that I haven’t heard a soul (aside from my uncle at Thanksgiving) talking about it since week two. On the other hand, the Super Bowl is by far the biggest event from the season and any player willing to play the absurd fine would make the largest impact by doing kneeling in this game. But, with two no-nonsense coaches on the sideline, I can’t really see either team’s players going out of their way to make a stand on such a big stage.

MY PICK: NO (-500)

Broadcast Bets

These bets are those which depend on the broadcast team either mentioning or showing certain people or actions during the game.

How many plays will Tony Romo correctly predict during the game?

Over 7.5 (-140)

Under 7.5 (EVEN)

This is simple, the over is the play here. It’s not that I believe in Tony Romo’s abilities, it’s that I genuinely believe that the CBS broadcasting crew tapped into the radio signals and started feeding them to Tony Romo during the broadcast. This may be completely erroneous, but hey it makes more sense than Tony Romo being the smartest man in football.

MY PICK: OVER 7.5 (-140)

How many times will Ted Rath be mentioned during the broadcast?

Over 3.5 (+155)

Under 3.5  (-220)

For those of you who don’t know who Ted Rath is, he is basically Sean McVay’s “hold me back” guy and he has been a broadcast focus for the last couple of games. Essentially the Chris Hogan Lacrosse or Justin Tucker sings opera music of the LA Rams. Because of his notoriety over the last couple of games, I’d say that they mention him once going into the game and then any time he is needed to hold back Sean McVay thereafter. As you all know, the Super Bowl is the biggest game of the year so I’d assume Sean McVay is gonna be amped up, needing to be held back quite a bit. Another point worth noting is that the parameters of the bet declare that everytime the broadcasters say “Rath” it will count as one, meaning just one conversation could hit the over.

MY PICK: OVER 3.5 (+155)

How many replays will be shown of Rath holding back McVay during the game?

Over 1.5 (-135)

Under 1.5 (-105)

For this bet, I am essentially using the same thought process as above. Super Bowl = Big Game, Big Game = High tensions, High Tensions = Hold me back moments. Go over.

MY PICK: OVER 1.5 (-135)

How many times will the broadcast mention Sean McVay’s age?

Over 1.5 (-190)

Under 1.5 (+145)

Vegas might be playing me for a fool here, but there is no circumstance where I see them mentioning Sean McVay being 33 less than 2 times. They will definitely mention it once at the beginning of the game in contrast to Bill Belichick’s age/legacy. That only leaves one more mention, which I believe will come shortly after, when talking about his success for his age.

MY PICK: OVER 1.5 (-190)

Gameplay Bets

These bets are those that have to do with the gameplay itself, for some I will be presenting more than one option that I like.

Who will win Super Bowl MVP?

Tom Brady (+140)

Jared Goff (+250)

Todd Gurley (+900)

Sony Michel (+1200)

CJ Anderson (+1800)

Aaron Donald (+1800)

James White (+2000)

Brandin Cooks (+4000)

Robert Woods (+5000)

Julian Edelman (+2000)

Rob Gronkowski (+1600)

Many more names and odds I don’t feel like writing

The Picks I like

Tom Brady (+140)

This is an obvious play as it would be very difficult to see the patriots winning without Tom taking home the MVP. Honestly at +140 I think this bet is a steal. Instead of taking the Pats moneyline I would take this bet as almost a guarantee if the Pats win.

Sony Michel (+1200)

Obviously this pick makes no sense coming off the confidence in Tom Brady. But Sony is the only other person I could possibly see winning this award on the Pats. The only way this happens is if Sony puts the team on his back and rushes for an electric game. I think the possibilities that he goes off lines up well with the odds, making it a good play.

Aaron Donald (+1800)

Must I explain this pick. Yes I must. Aaron Donald is inhuman simple as that and I think that the Rams ability to stop Tom Brady rests on Aaron Donald and this pass rush. If Donald can get a solid pressure on Tom Brady I could see it having a game changing effect, enough to earn him the MVP.

The Picks I could See

Jared Goff (+250)

If the Rams win it’s gonna take a big effort from Jared Goff. While I don’t like his odds as much as Aaron Donald’s, I could very easily see Goff winning.

CJ Anderson (+1800)

Once again, I am a sucker for some good odds with any chance of winning. CJ Anderson is the freshest player in this game and with the mysterious absence of Todd Gurley in the NFC championship, I like the chances of CJ making an impact on the game.

The Picks I Hate

Anybody else on the patriots

As I said earlier, if the Pats win this game there is very little chance anybody but Tom Brady wins MVP. In Super Bowl 51 James White had a historic performance but it still wasn’t enough to put him over the hump to win MVP over Tom Brady. It is as simple as this, anybody who catches passes from Tom Brady will not win MVP. The other side of the ball is a more possible scenario but still far from likely. Again Super Bowl 51, Dont’a Hightower made one of the biggest plays in Super Bowl history and saved the Patriots from defeat… still not enough for the MVP. Stay away from Patriots player not wearing number 12.

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